Well, I did it. For the first time in my life, I managed to see all of the Best Picture nominees before the Oscars. Take that, resolution #17! I feel accomplished! How sad for me…
Finally watched Winter’s Bone (#13) – I liked it, I thought it was a good movie and Jennifer Lawrence deserves every ounce of praise she’s received, but it is by no means the best film of the year. Or, maybe it was just too dark and too full of squirrel-skinning for me to appreciate it fully. Either way, I probably would have bumped the film off the nominees list for Blue Valentine. Jennifer Lawrence definitely deserves her acting nomination though. I don’t know what has brought on this surge of tough, independent, kick-ass leads played by talented young females, but I’m totally digging it.
Oscars are tonight. I get far too excited for them, every year. I know they’re all political; I know they don’t really mean anything – looking back at some of the past winners, you can’t help but scoff or marvel at how little the award did for their career; I know that at some point during the night I’ll be rolling my eyes or groaning or cursing the TV; I know they’re cheesy and over-hyped and last all frigging night; but I can’t help it. I love them. I remember watching Cuba Gooding Jr. win – my first, clear Oscar memory – and knowing, in that moment, I was witnessing something people would talk about for years. The first show I watched from beginning to end (bedtime be damned!) was the ’98 Oscars when Titanic was nominated. Somehow, my undying love for Leo was so moving, my mother couldn’t help but agree to let me wait and see if Titanic took home the gold. Pretty sure I woke her up with my squeals of joy when it did.
I’m looking forward to tonight’s telecast. I’m especially looking forward to Anne Hathaway and James Franco’s hosting. I’ve always been a fan of Franco’s, and Anne Hathaway has grown on me over the past couple of years. Plus, I gotta say, the promos I’ve seen have made me giggle:
I have no idea if these two will be any good, but I was pleasantly surprised with Hugh Jackman’s gig 2 years back (as well as Anne Hathaway’s participation in it) so I’m hoping to be pleasantly surprised once again.
So, as with the Golden Globes, I’ve decided to post my predictions for the winners tonight, as well as who I think DESERVES to win (because the two are not mutually inclusive) and then compare with the actual winners come Monday (or Tuesday, since I have a date to see Mansfield Park Monday night.) Here we go!
Will win: The King’s Speech
Should win: The Social Network
This is going to be a really, really close call. These two are fairly evenly divided with the awards they’ve won thus far, so it’s hard to say who’s going to take this one. I think both films are phenomenal and I’ll be happy regardless, but I’m going to give the edge to The King’s Speech – it’s a feel good story without a morally ambiguous lead. Plus, despite trying to court younger viewers with hip, young hosts, I still suspect the Academy is mostly composed of old fogies who don’t entirely get this whole “facebook thing.” A king with a stutter, that’s something they can get behind! I’d love to be proven wrong though, I really would…
Will win: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
Should win: Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
This one is a no-brainer. Colin Firth is phenomenal in the role, he’s cleaning up at all the other award shows, and no matter how much I enjoyed the other performances, it’s clear that Colin Firth is the standout. Though I won’t lie, it’d be pretty cool to see James Franco win while hosting – it’d never happen, but can you imagine?
Will win: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Should win: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
I’ll admit: I am totally caught up in the Portmania (What? It’s a thing!) I’ve been a fan for years and to see her getting so much well-deserved recognition this year has just made me giddy. An upset with Michelle Williams taking it wouldn’t be the WORST thing ever, but Portman’s performance in Black Swan is crazy good. And crazy crazy. I’m predicting a hormone-heavy acceptance speech, complete with goofy laughs and baby brain and a couple tears. Can’t wait.
Best Supporting Actor:
Will win: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Should win: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Much like Natalie, this is an actor I’ve adored for many, many years. His performance in The Fighter is a knock-out (pun TOTALLY intended, aaaaaaaaaaaa-thank you!) and I just can’t imagine any of the other nominees walking off with the prize – unless The King’s Speech love leads to a Geoffrey Rush upset which may cause me to spew obscenities at my screen.
Best Supporting Actress:
Will win: Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Should win: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
This honestly might be the hardest category for me. I went back and forth on this one, not only with regards to who I think will win, but also who I think should win. I loved Melissa Leo in The Fighter. I loved Amy Adams in The Fighter. And I loved Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit. All three performances deserve every ounce of praise they’ve received and all three ladies deserve recognition. I think there’s a better than good chance that Hailee could walk away with the award tonight, especially if the two ladies from The Fighter end up splitting the vote, but I suspect that Hailee’s age, combined with this being her first film, will result in the standard “adorable and talented youngster” nomination that won’t actually lead to a win (hopefully, she won’t disappear like Keisha Castle-Hughes or Justin Henry,) and if that turns out to be the case, I’m putting my money on Melissa Leo who manages to outshine Amy Adams just enough.
Best Animated Film:
Will win: Toy Story 3
Should win: Toy Story 3
Anyone who disagrees is a moron. You’d have to be made of stone to not appreciate this film. Pixar dominates this category, all others don’t stand a chance.
Will win: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Should win: David Fincher (The Social Network)
I’m still incredibly pissed about the complete lack of Christopher Nolan love in this category. I don’t think he’d have had a snowball’s chance in hell of winning, but come on! You think his movie qualifies as a Best Film nominee, but his direction doesn’t deserve a nod?! Shenanigans I say!
Anyway, I throw my support behind David Fincher. The Social Network is incredible and I’ve always been a fan of Fincher’s. Tom Hooper could take it home for King’s Speech, but I think Fincher has the better shot here.
Best Original Screenplay:
Will win: Inception (Christopher Nolan)
Should win: Inception (Christopher Nolan)
I’m going out on a limb with this one. I’m predicting that as an apology for not recognizing his directing ability, the Academy will give Nolan the statue for his incredibly original and mind-blowing script – and rightly so. Love it or hate it, you can’t argue against how creative it was. King’s Speech could win on sentiment alone, but I’m sticking with my belief (and, probably, fool’s hope) that Nolan will get some well-deserved credit.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will win: The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin)
Should win: The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin)
Another no-brainer. Aaron Sorkin’s clever and zippy script is nothing short of brilliant. I look forward to his self-deprecating and hopefully witty acceptance speech.
And my predictions in the other categories, based on nothing more than guesswork:
Foreign Language Film: Biutiful (Javier won’t win best actor, but his movie can still get some recognition here)
Cinematography: Inception (Because I want Inception to get as much recognition as it possibly can, dammit!)
Editing: 127 Hours (I remember the editing from this film. If I remember it, it must have made an impact)
Art Direction: Inception (See above)
Costume Design: Alice In Wonderland (It’s the only one listed with really extravagant costumes)
Makeup: The Wolfman (Because the other nominees aren’t particularly impressive, makeup-wise. Barney’s Version? Really?)
Original Score: Inception (I actually think The Social Network might take it, but I adore Inception‘s score)
Original Song: “If I Rise” – 127 Hours (This category is a little lacklustre this year. But I think this is the least lame option. Sidenote: How stoked am I to see Zachery Levi sing at the Oscars? SO STOKED)
Sound Mixing: Inception (I just sorta gave up and kept picking Inception for anything I could)
Sound Editing: Inception (See above)
Visual Effects: Inception (Ok, this one I think is actually well deserved. ROTATING HALLWAY SCENE. That’s all I’m sayin’)
Documentary: Exit Through The Gift Shop (Because everything I’ve read about it makes it sound awesome)
Documentary (Short Subject): Killing In The Name (The title sounded deep. Seriously, that’s why I picked it)
Short Film (Animated): Day & Night (Because it’s the only one I’ve seen. And it’s Pixar)
Short Film (Live Action): Gods of Love (I liked the title. The end)